- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on July 3rd, 2018
The small cap Russell 2000 Index broke out of its stagnation in May. It ran to the upside into late June and then became exhausted. After 14 record closing highs it topped out on the last full day of spring. Since then it has pulled back, giving up much of the break out. But Monday may have lit a fuse just in time for the Fourth of July celebrations.
The chart below shows the price action. the break out to new highs actually started at the beginning of May. And the pullback retraced just over 38.2% of the move higher. Support came at the lower Bollinger Band and just above the 50 day SMA into the weekend. The weakness Friday posed a dilemma after a strong start to the day faded.
Monday looked like the small caps would continue to the downside, with a gap down at the open. But there was strength all day long and the Russell 2000 ETF closed at the high of the day. It printed a bullish engulfing candle, boding for more upside. A continued move higher would give a target to 173 or 180 on a Measured Move. The 175 target from the break of an ascending triangle remains as well.
All 3 of those figures are reinforced by the shift in momentum. A positive RSI reversal gives the same 173 and 180 targets. The MACD continues to move down but remains positive, perhaps it will reverse and help rocket this market higher again.