During my interaction with traders during my trading course,I came to know most of traders who loose money will keep changing their trading system the day it give them a loss. Till its milking money traders stick to it, but if 2-3 trades goes wrong they will keep the trading system on back burner and start searching for new one.
This whole attitude of changing the trading system is one of the biggest mistake of traders.
Traders will search through trading forums to find the next best trading system which will help them in earning profit they seek. Trader will try the new system again for few weeks and again once the system give 1-2 loss making trades , the system will be dumped and search for “next best trading system or trading indicator” will begin and the same never ending cycle will keep going on and on.
To stop falling in trap of such vicious cycle, Trader need to let go of the thought there is a “Holy Grail” system or a fool proof trading method which will win 100% of time. “Holy Grail” system has never exited till date and it will never exit. Now when u try to explain this to trader, 50% still do not believe me.
I can sense them thinking “Just because Bramesh has not found the 100% fool proof system does not mean I will not find it, I am not a Quitter ” Have you ever been in such situation, I bet most of readers who are reading this must have gone through this process.
Many traders think this way is because they fail to understand the fundamental on What drive the stock prices up or down.Let me explain this
If I ask the following question to trader:
- Why Rel Cap/Rel Infra/PCJ went down 10-20 % in a day.
- Why Nifty is is crashing every day.
- Why Nifty is so volatile today
Popular reasons traders will give for the stocks or markets moving are “The news” or “Some announcement from company” or “Markets are manipulated anything can happen “, but the truth is the markets or stock do not move because of any of these reasons. These things can be factors but they are not the reason the market moves.The market moves because of simple economic principal of Supply and Demand. When FII’s,DII’s,HNI and other big traders think stock or market is cheap they will bid higher making it move up and when they think its expensive they bid the price lower and market goes down.
News Announcement like Fed Policy, RBI Policy, New Government getting elected or Fundamentals of economy like GDP growth rate, IIP data do not make the price move up or down, but they do have the power to change the minds of the traders who do move the market.
Let me elaborate with an example, Consider Trader X is thinking of Buying Nifty Futures because he think RBI will cut rates and market participants on hearing the announcement will take prices further up. Now Suppose RBI came out with no rate cut announcement which is negative, this news has power to change Trader X mind and he think Nifty Future is expensive. So Instead of Buying more he goes out and Short Nifty futures. If enough number traders aggress with MR X , price of Nifty future will further go down.So The announcement did not send price down! The traders who trade the market did because they interpreted the announcement as negative and started selling.
It is this same reason why the system that is “Fool Proof”, “100%” every time does not exist and never will. For a trading system to be 100% correct and every trade be a winner, the system would have to know exactly what every other trader in the market was doing. The trading system would have to know exactly who was doing what, where exactly they were entering the market, how much they were trading and where they were exiting. Obviously this is impossible and is the reason why no matter how good a trader or system may be, there will always be times when losses are incurred.
The good news is that you can develop or learn a solid trading system that keeps the odds tilted in your favor . You can find trading systems out there that will yield some results, you just have to accept that nothing is perfect and temper down your expectation of 100% accuracy.