Is the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodities creating a long-term bottom? What the index does at (3) over the next few weeks, will go a long way to answering this important question!
Commodities don’t have much to brag about over the past 8-years, as lower highs have taken place since the peak back in 2011. After the peak in 2011, they have created falling channel (1).
The index hit the top of this channel the prior two months at (2), creating back to back bearish reversal patterns.
Softness this month has the index testing 2017 lows and rising support at (3). While testing this support line, the index is attempting to create a bullish reversal pattern at (3).
Commodities created bulls reversal patterns in 2009 and 2015 along a rising support line. It is attempting to do the same thing again this month.
Are commodities creating a bear market bottom this month? What they do at (3) over the next several weeks will send an important message to this hard-hit index!
One thing is for sure; If you are bullish commodities, you DO NOT want to see support give way at (3)!!!