Chart: US PMI Points to Stronger GDP Growth

The June round of PMI data for the USA brought a conflicting picture month-on-month, but looking at a high-level it confirmed what we had previously been seeing. On the data, the ISM manufacturing PMI jumped +1.5pts to 60.2 (vs expectations of a fall to 58.2) and the Markit manufacturing PMI dropped -1pt to 55.4 (vs the initial flash reading of 54.6 – it’s interesting to see such an improvement). But again, the key point is that by and large the trend of improvement remains the same and looks consistent with GDP growth accelerating towards 4%. Also of interest was in the detail, an improvement in the export orders and big jump in import orders. As for the implications, it continues with the bullish view on the US economy, and all else equal this is bullish US dollar, bearish bonds, and means more monetary tightening from the Fed.