Chart: Consumers, Manufacturers, and Global Equities

This chart makes use of the Thomson Reuters Ipsos consumer sentiment indexes, which I have aggregated into a GDP weighted global composite. The global composite consumer sentiment index took a dive in June – and in some ways looks like a delayed reaction. Previously the index had been moving higher vs the global manufacturing PMI and the MSCI All Countries World index, which had both been moving lower. Emerging markets were the biggest contributor to the fall in the global index, with the EM composite down -2.3 points to 60.8, although DM also fell (-1.4 to 54.0). It is just one month of data in what has sometimes been a volatile indicator, but it looks more consistent with what’s been going on with the manufacturing PMI and global equities, so it’s another sign of a softening in global growth momentum. I’m still running a constructive outlook on global growth, but am mindful of some of the softer data prints like this one…