Will Lowflation Extend The Rally In Everything For Bonds?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified in Congress yesterday that a rate cut may be near. That’s music to the ears of the bond market because it offers more...

Interest Rates Hitting Short-Term Lows/Bonds Peaking?

Will the Fed lower interest rates today? They could if they follow the yield on the 10-year note over the past 32-weeks! This chart reflects that the yield on the...

The U.S. Could Hit Debt Ceiling Default Earlier Than Expected

Today, the Bipartisan Policy Center said there is a “significant risk” that the U.S. will breach its debt limit in September unless Congress acts. The last time the independent...

Should You Believe The Equity Market Or The Bond Market?

​As we head into the second half of 2019, the financial markets are telling us two stories. The first is the equity markets. If you pay attention to just the...

Which Countries Own the Most U.S. Debt?

In the international finance system, U.S. debt can be bought and held by virtually anyone. In fact, if you hold a U.S. Treasury bond or a T-Bill in your portfolio...

Investment Grade Bonds Could Be Peaking, Says Joe Friday

Are investment grade bonds peaking? Some conditions suggest its possible, says Joe Friday! This chart looks at Investment Grade Bond ETF (LQD) over the past 10-years. LQD has moved sharply...

US Bond Market’s Rally In Everything Rolls On For 2019

Investors can’t get enough of bond-market risk this year. Sure, the bull run in US stocks is a sight to behold, but the animal spirits in fixed income are...

Interest Rates Could Bottoming After 35% Decline, Says Joe Friday

Are interest rates near a short-term low? Possible! This chart looks at the Yield on the 10-year note (TNX) over the past 15-years. The lower part of the chart measures...

Consumer Staple And Yields About To Send Key Message To Stocks?

Could the Staples sector and the yield on the 10-year note be on the verge of sending an important message to the stock and bond markets? It sure looks...

Treasury Market’s Inflation Outlook Tumbles

The Treasury market continues to downgrade US inflation expectations, which suggests that the case is strengthening for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The widely followed spread for nominal...

Yield Curve Inverted Again. Will Gold Shine Now?

The U.S. yield curve has inverted again, and it has done so to the widest level since 2007. How much of a reason to worry is that actually? A...

EM Hoodwinking Investors and a BIG Bond Short

Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings... Articles I’m reading — Jason Zweig writing for the WSJ published an article (link here) highlighting what I think is an important...