Jobs number strong but income growth disappoints

The U.S. economy added a net 228,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a gain of 195,000. That kept...

Do High Volatility FX Moves Signal a Turn?

There are no shortages of factors driving the U.S. dollar lower.  On a broad basis, stronger global growth makes U.S. assets less attractive especially during a time when investors are...

US Treasuries Predicting That The Inflation Rebound Has Peaked

The hard data on inflation points to a modestly accelerating rate of inflation, a trend that supports the Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy of gently but consistently raising interest rates....

Macro Briefing: 15 April 2019

Mueller report set for public release this week: Bloomberg EU set to start delayed trade talks with US: Reuters Signs of a US-China trade deal help lift Asian stocks: MW Outlook improves...

Who Owns You?

Richard Maybury grabbed my attention: “Think about it. There are really only two choices. Either you will own you, or someone else will.” I’ve subscribed to Richard’s “U.S & World Early Warning...

Resilience Amidst Headwinds Is Key For H2

Resilience is set to become the key issue as we look forward to H2, as I note in a new analysis for ICIS Chemical Business. None of us have ever seen...

Fed Raises Interest Rates As Core Inflation Slows

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again yesterday, but the announcement of tighter policy followed news that the trend in core consumer inflation drifted lower. The combination of higher...

President Trump Attacks US Libel Laws

We interrupt our regularly scheduled review of markets and economics to consider President Trump’s latest comments on US libel laws. His remarks on Wednesday suggest that the White House...

Will NFPs be Strong Enough to Reverse the Dollar’s Slide?

The U.S. dollar continued to rise against the Japanese Yen following yesterday's hawkish FOMC statement but the greenback failed to extend those gains to other currencies such as the...

Macro Briefing: 15 January 2019

Polls suggest Trump is losing public support for gov’t shutdown: Fox Officials preparing for nightmare scenarios if shutdown continues: Bloomberg Goldman Sachs: US growth will slow but avoid recession in 2019:...

GDP Growth Surprises At 3.2% In First Quarter; Economists Question Sustainability

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That’s substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for...

A Brief History of Financial Entropy

A Brief History of Financial Entropy The global economy began an experiment with fiscal and monetary alchemy when it exited the gold standard almost 50 years ago. In 1971 the USD...