Macro Briefing: 14 February 2019

Washington waits to see if Trump will sign law and avert gov’t shutdown: CNN Trump considering 60-day extension for China tariff deadline: CNBC Germany’s economic performance was flat in 2018’s Q4:...

China’s 2018 Economic Growth Sinks To 3-Decade Low

China's economic growth hit a three-decade low in 2018, adding to pressure on Beijing to beef up stimulus measures and settle a tariff war with Washington. Growth slowed to 6.6...

Slowing Growth Means More Frequent Recessions

Whether we like it or not, the value of our portfolios depends heavily on the behavior of financial markets, which in turn are intertwined with the economy. Therefore, how...

US GDP Growth Remains Set For Moderate Slowdown in Q4

Economic output is still on track to decelerate to a moderately slower pace in the government’s fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product (GDP) due later this month, based on...

Macro Briefing: 15 January 2019

Polls suggest Trump is losing public support for gov’t shutdown: Fox Officials preparing for nightmare scenarios if shutdown continues: Bloomberg Goldman Sachs: US growth will slow but avoid recession in 2019:...

Jobs Report: December’s Rising Unemployment Rate Isn’t a Concern

The December jobs report was great, as measured by the raw number of payrolls created last month. All told, the 312,000 new jobs added in December was the best...

US Private-Sector Hiring Rose Sharply in December

Companies dramatically increased hiring in December, according to this morning’s monthly update from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The substantially larger-than-expected increase in private-sector employment suggests that the...

Moderately Slower Growth Rate Expected For US GDP In Q4

The US expansion remains on track for a moderate deceleration in fourth-quarter GDP growth, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator....

Macro Briefing: 24 December 2018

Trump: second in command at Defense Dept is acting sec. as of Jan 1: Politico US gov’t shutdown could stretch into January: WSJ Treasury Sec. calls bankers, organizes ‘plunge protection team’:...

Weekly Market Outlook – So Bad It’s Good? Maybe. Or…

We mentioned a week ago that the selling effort had taken on a self-sustaining life of its own. The more the bears sold, the scarier things got, causing more...

Market Sell-off = Betrayal

List of Betrayals: Weaponizing of IRS, DOJ, FBI, NSA, CIA, Fed, and ODNI for political gain. Dismantling of military leadership 2012-2013. Election Fraud to be revealed in great detail...

The debt threat: Business debt, and worries about it, are up

Homeowners appear to have learned the lesson of the Great Recession about not taking on too much debt. There is some concern that Corporate America didn't get the message. For...