Chart: TED Spread and LIBOR-OIS

Here's a timely update on a couple of short-term funding pressure gauges - I noticed the movement in these indicators as I was updating the latest "Global Cross Asset...

Fed raises key rate and sees possible acceleration in hikes

The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year and signaled that it may step up its pace of rate increases because of...

Chart: OECD Leading Indicators – EM vs DM

The latest update to the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) provides the opportunity to take a look at the weighted average view for Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets (I...

Is The Modest Rebound In Commercial Lending Sustainable?

In late-2017 some analysts warned that the sliding annual growth rate for commercial and industrial lending in the US would soon turn negative, raising a warning sign for the...

May’s Jobs Report Leaves Critics Very Little to Gripe About

Poke holes in whatever you might see as the downside of Friday morning's look at last month's job creation and employment report. Just know that you're grasping at straws...

Chart Of The Week: US PE10 Valuation Ex-GFC

This week it's the PE10 and the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically what we're looking at is how the PE10 or CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings) ratio...

BlackRock’s Fink: Flattening Yield Curve Isn’t An Economic Warning

Add BlackRock’s CEO to the list of high-powered people in finance who are skeptical that a flattening yield curve reflects a threat that’s brewing for the US economy. Although...

ChartBrief 211 – Global Consumer Confidence

There is a little-watched and relatively obscure set of indicators produced by Thomson Reuters and Ipsos, called the primary consumer sentiment indexes. These provide a standardized approach to measuring...

After Blossoms Peak, What’s the Next Plant Cycle?

These tulips in front of Citi Field in Queens, NY, are in full bloom and quite attractive. There are tulips lining the entire entrance to the stadium. So, while the landscape...

Tech Momentum Shines In Turbulent First Quarter

It’s been a turbulent year for US stocks so far, but technology shares are an exception as this corner of the market roars higher in 2018. These firms have...

Projections for U.S. oil sale production call for faster, higher, longer

The executive director of the International Energy Agency today said that “explosive growth” in U.S. oil production from wells in shale geologies is likely to extend beyond 2018. As you...

There Are (Still) No Shortcuts For Estimating Recession Risk

The St. Louis Fed last week pondered the question: “Is the U.S. Due for a Recession?” In a blog post the bank advised that after a long expansion “there...
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