Can’t Keep A Good (Gold)Man Down

Brett Kavanaugh has been nominated for the U.S. Supreme Court, although a tough confirmation fight lies ahead in the Senate. As an ideological conservative he’s expected to push the court to the right on a number of issues, including business regulation. Kavanaugh has been critical of the expanding powers of federal agencies, including on measures like labor rights, credit-card fees and “payday” loans, and has also cast doubt on the constitutionality of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Let’s consider Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS):

The VantagePoint platform recently indicated upside momentum.

Using the predictive indicators embedded within the VantagePoint platform and its predictive AI technology, we will point out three significant things. We have a bullish crossover indicated by the blue predictive indicator line crossing above the black simple moving average between 7/6/18 and 7/9/18.  We can combine that with the VantagePoint propriety neural index indicator moving from the RED to the GREEN position the day before.  This indicator measures strength and weakness for a 48-hour period, in this case strength.  The move to the GREEN position further makes the case for a potential bullish scenario. We also have the predicted high and low above yesterday’s actual high and low indicating further strength.  I want to play the VP bullish indication.

Strategy Discussion

If one was strictly a stock trader, buying GS in the $228.00 area could be prudent.  You are anticipating a move to the upside.  As a protective measure, it is always good practice to place a sell-stop order.  In this case, placing that order in the $222.00 area will mitigate potential losses.

For active traders with a shorter investment time horizon, you can consider a setup utilizing options. Given the market conditions outlined above, taking an active, premium debit approach may be the best path to success.

Because of the reasons given above, the purchase of a debit call spread may be one way to approach this situation.  The first thing that you want to do is calculate your target price.  In order to perform this calculation, you need three pieces of information:  current price, expiration date and the implied volatility for that expiration date.  For GS this calculation yields a target strike of ~$235.  You may want to consider the GS July 20th regular expiration 232.5/235 call spread, buying it for $0.70.  The most you lose is the premium paid and the most you can gain is the width of the spread less any premium paid.  Max risk = $0.70 and max reward = $1.80.  This means that you are getting odds of 2.57:1.

Given the trading and market environment outlined above, a trader must evaluate whether this reward/risk ratio is appropriate for his/her risk tolerance.