Horns vary in size and shape from straight, curved or spiraled, and can be smooth or ridged in texture.
If a horn breaks off, it will not grow back.
Broken horns will bleed.
The bulls in the market have varied types of horns-not only in shape, but also in length.
Many market bulls have lost or broke a horn in 2018.
And, they have shed blood.
However, sometimes bulls are purposely dehorned for economic and safety reasons.
In the current market, some bulls, especially the ones with shorter horns (or shorter timeframes), have lost one horn, and some blood.
The bulls with longer horns (or longer timeframe horizons), may have only lost a tip of their horns.
The question for the coming week is will the bulls be totally dehorned for economic reasons, or
Will they be just fine working with the horns they have left?
The best survival factors for the bulls all last week depended upon one key sector and one index-Transportation (IYT) and the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Both closed in bullish phases (with IYT yet to confirm).
You might think I would attribute the market’s tepid strength to the strong earnings in FANG stocks (minus Google.)
Yet, the FANG stocks (Amazon excluded) are showing signs of weakness.
Semiconductors (SMH) held the key weekly moving average but look vulnerable, closing just below the 200 DMA and back into an unconfirmed distribution phase.
For now, despite technology’s poor performance, the rest of the Modern Family looks ok.
Granny Retail (XRT) confirmed the bullish phase.
Biotechnology (IBB) is trying to work its way towards the Holy Grail price of 107.
Regional Banks (KRE), holds its bullish phase.
That makes the macro picture neutral to friendly.
What could be concerning, besides SMH, are the periphery instruments.
Commodities, especially DBA the ETF for agricultural commodites, went into an unconfirmed bullish phase. This is in spite of a rising dollar and interest rates.
What makes this concerning for the market is that the dollar might have had its fun. With strong resistance at 24.14, on Friday, it had a potential topping pattern. That will confirm if it breaks under 23.98.
And with GDP 2.3%, the interest rates, on a tear earlier in the week, softened. Both a weaker dollar and lower rates will help commodities.
That makes the stagflation potential still very much in play as this year continues.
So bulls, watch IYT and IWM. Watch the technology sector. Watch the rates and the dollar. Finally, watch commodities.
Should your horns grow brittle and break, horn repairs must be done as soon as possible.
Best practice? Instead of trying to be a longhorn bull, perhaps think about dehorning instead.
S&P 500 (SPY) 266-267 resistance was tested again. 268.48 is where the 50 DMA comes in. Support now at 264.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 154 now the area to hold. Through 155.50 157 next resistance. Under 154 could see 150, especially if IYT weakens
Dow (DIA) Over 245-246 way better. 3=237 support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Tested but could not clear the 50 DMA at 164.41. 161.50 pivotal support.