Good evening. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, July 13, with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights.
What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index. We are also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend, we are going to take a look at both daily and weekly charts. But before looking at any charts, we’re actually going to log in to the Trading Trainer ‘Learning Community’ web portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. Of course, once we’ve logged in to the Learning Community web portal, I’m going to direct you right to our Daily Insights tab and further to the Recommendation sub tab.
Take a look at the recommendations we have for Monday, July 16’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have a major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights tab and its sub-tabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its sub-tabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. When you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments. In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of these Charts of Interest video series, let’s go to the Daily Insights tab and the Index Stats sub tab.
Our trading bias remains neutral bullish. Our industrials shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.38% today on light, below average New York Stock Exchange volume and gained 2.3% for this past week on heavy, below average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our technology stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index edged up 0.03% today on light, below average NASDAQ exchange volume, and 1.79% for this past week on flat, below average NASDAQ exchange weekly volume. And our large caps shown by the S&P 500 gained 0.11% today and gained 1.5% for this past week.
Let’s move on to our secondary indexes. Our 100 best stocks out there showing the S&P 100 gained 0.1% today and 1.86% for this past week. Our mid caps shown by the S&P 400 edged down 0.02% today and gained 0.34% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, edged down 0.08% and fell 0.19%, respectively, for today and fell 0.39% and 0.41%, respectively, for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite gained a 0.06% today and 0.83% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility fell 3.18% today and fell 8.9% for this past week, closing at $12.18 per share. Our Gold ETF fell 0.44% today and fell 1.05% for this past week, while our Oil ETF gained 0.56% today and fell 3.28% for this past week.
Team, let’s take a look at our economic calendar by going to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar sub tab. Taking a look first at the Market Reflections summary for today, Friday, July 13… well, we can see here that despite all the tariff wars the market gained for the week. We can see some undulations in companies that deal with raw materials of aluminum and steel as there was a big buy up before the tariffs, and then a drop significantly after the tariffs. Trade war aside, the Dow is tickling a top for the year. The other thing that people are seeing is a move from bonds into equities, which is actually narrowing the rate curve between the two-year and 10-year treasury bond, which is a traditional recession signal. Eyes are on that narrowing spread yield. If you will, it is a yield spread metric.
Let’s move on to Monday, July 16, and take a look at the Market Focus pointers. Just a sentence here saying that the Fed is going to be looking at consumer spending rebounding in the spring and different pieces of the puzzle like retail sales and production numbers. Also, on Monday, July 16, we’re going to find the once-a-week International Perspective and Simply Economics reports. These two reports are must reads as they summarize what happened the previous week and help us understand what’s coming up for the week to come. Please take a moment this weekend and read through the International Perspective report and the Simply Economics report.
In the meantime, back to today, Friday, July 13. Early in the morning, we released our Import and Export Prices. Month-over-month, our import prices in May were up a 0.6% increase. We revised that May number this time around to be up a 0.9% increase, and June, we’re coming in with a 0.4% decrease. Year-over-year, May imports were up 4.3% revised this time around to be up 4.5%, and June came in at 4.3%. Exports, on the other hand, in May were up 0.6%, in June up 0.3%. Year-over-year in May, we were up 4.9%, in June up 5.3%. Taking a look at our Consumer Sentiment mid-month. Last time we reported 98.2, this time we’re reporting a little bit sourer at 97.1. Still hot but sourer than before. Taking a look at what’s coming up for Monday; Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and Business Inventories.
Let’s take a look at our Trading Tools tab and our Watch Lists sub tab. No tickers were identified by our ‘Covered Call Writing’Candidate Filter. Two tickers were identified by or ‘Options Trading’ Candidate Filter. We will evaluate those two tickers for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our watch lists.
Let’s move on to our Trading Tools tab and Daily Picks sub tab. Here, under the Trading Tools tab and the Daily Picks sub-tab, we’re going to find the Trading Trainer ‘Daily picks’ report generation tool. We’re going to start by doing a deeper dive on our Index Tickers by looking at volume and trends. The volume was very much down today compared to yesterday, down compared to the 50 and the 200-day. The oscillator is down. Short duration trends are bullish, long duration trends are working their way up to being bullish.
Taking a look at our template algorithm filters. These mathematically go through whatever raw data they are presented with looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of our index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea of what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch lists. We can see here that the trend continuation trio of templates is hinting at a bullish trend continuation, whereas the trend reversal templates, well, they’re also hinting at that with respect to the big three indexes. However, when we look at the mid caps and small caps, they tend to fall a little bit on the short side. Looking at our sideways channelers, our Bollinger Band Width Index is still large, and our candlestick counter is entering into the double digits.
Let’s move on to our trading Tools tab, and our Charting sub tab. Here we’re going to take a look at our Quick Review template. This is a six month, daily chart with a linear scale and open high low close bars. To that, I’m going to add my 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine the trend. I’ve got those simple moving averages added to the quick review template here in a user-defined template in my personal profile. I’ve got that user-defined template applied to our index tickers starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Starting out actually with a two year, weekly chart, we can see this past week was very much an up week with a gain in volume compared to the holiday week, but still light volume overall. We see some sideways channeling coming up to test our resistance. We do have a lower low, and we haven’t quite established a higher high, so we are testing bear switching to our daily chart, six-month. The 200-day, 50-day, and 30-day are all bullish. Our seven day has crossed above the 50 and will soon cross above the 30. Our volume is not quite validating. In fact, it’s the opposite. Switching to our five-minute chart, our gain happened in the morning session and then went sideways for the rest of the day. Taking a look at our notes, we closed at $25,019.41. Our low was $24,890.06. We will take a note that says ‘closed above resistance’. The seven is now above the 50, soon to be above the 30. The 30-day simple moving average is up and our daily polarity is still currently testing bear. The weekly polarity is testing bear as well. Our trading bias on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is neutral.
Moving on to the NASDAQ Exchange, beginning with a weekly, two-year chart. We reached new highs this week closing close to our high. Our polarity is full on bull with a higher high after a higher low. Our volume was stronger this week in the technology stocks but still weak overall switching to a six month, daily chart. Seven-day needs to be above the 30, and the price is now giving us a higher high after a lower low, which tells me that we are testing bull. We closed at $7,825.98. Our low was $7,803.34, and so we’re going to adjust our support and resistance lines. We’re now at $7,800 and psychological resistance is now and at $8,000. Switching on over to our 200-day simple moving average. Looking at our five-minute charts. For today, we had gains in the morning session. We calmed down in the afternoon session and then went sideways. Our trading bias is going to remain bullish on the NASDAQ Exchange.
Moving on to our S&P 500 Index, the index I feel like most represents our watch list, we have a weekly, two-year chart. We are reaching a higher high after having a higher low, so our weekly polarity is bullish. Switching to a six month, daily chart, the 30, 50, and 200 are all trending up. Our seven day is trending up as well. We closed at $2,801.31. Our low is at $2,791.69. It looks like we’re going to be adjusting our support resistance lines. Support moving to $2,785. Resistance, something psychological or perhaps not. Perhaps we’ve got something around $2,850. Taking a look at our five-minute charts, we had gains in the morning, and then sideways for the rest of the day. Our polarity switches after a higher high and a higher low. Our polarity goes to full on bullish. Our trading bias so far is going to stay at a neutral bullish. Once we break above resistance at $2,850, we’ll be pushing on to a full on bullish bias.
In the meantime, let’s move on to our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, starting with a two year, weekly chart. As you can see here, there has been some sideways consolidation. Gains today, but not much. Simply pushing us up to resistance. Our polarity is mixed. We have somewhat of a divergent channel on the weekly chart. Moving to a six-month daily chart, we can see how the 30 and the 50 have consolidated. The 200 is right there. This is along with the flattening yield curve on the bond market. The New York Stock Exchange has a butterfly forming with the 30, 50 and 200-day simple moving averages. Something to keep an eye on. Something to be prepared for. An ultimate break that through correlation could bring the whole market with it; a breakout up or down we don’t know. In the meantime on the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, our trading bias will remain neutral.
Moving on to the VIX Volatility index, starting with a weekly, two-year chart, overlaying the 40-week simple moving average, we can see our implied volatility for the week has dipped down below that mean. Switching to a six month, daily chart. Overlaying a 200-day simple moving average, which is analogous to the 40-week simple moving average seeing as how in every trading week, there are five trading days. We can see the implied volatility has dipped down below the mean, the mean that it has pulled up on, but seems to be riding right at a level of support. Our VIX volatility index fell 3.18%, dropping to $12.18 per VIX share.
Our overall trading bias does remain neutral bullish.
Our broad market personality is a bullish trend continuation minus confirming volume.
Our market is responding to the following including, but not limited to, transient external stochastic shocks, the US fiscal policy, the US Federal Reserve monetary policy, the monetary policies of China, Europe and Japan, the price of oil, the US economic news including employment, housing, manufacturing and retail, and of course, the market news including Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As), Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), public companies going private, and earnings.