Back at 2800

Rolling into the end of the quarter I noted in this space how big round numbers can keep the indexes in a tight zone for periods of time. At that time the S&P 500 was tightly trading at 2700. Two weeks later it is a bit higher, retesting the round number at 2800. This test is a bigger one than the one at 2700 at the bottom of the recent range. That is because it is the 3rd test at 2800 as resistance after falling form the top in January.

The chart below shows the price action in a simple fashion. The 200 day SMA is the blue line that launched the S&P 500 higher after the 2016 elections. It became extended from that line at the beginning of the year and then dropped back quickly. The first test at the 200 day SMA happened in February and it has tested that line several times since. Each time making a higher low and reversing. The series of higher lows against 2800 as resistance has built an ascending triangle, and with the S&P 500 at the top poses the possibility of a break out to the upside.

Momentum is building and bullish with the RSI rising and the MACD crossing up. A break of the 2800 level gives a target to about 3070. Things to keep in mind are that July options expiration is next week and that could stall a move. Earnings start this Friday with the big banks. If the S&P 500 wants to get moving out of the 6 month range this week would be a good time to start.