At the start of the week, the Aussie got the bulls hearts racing as it barrelled through the .7600 level on much better than expected Retail Sales data. But the excitement didn’t last as the RBA quickly poured cold water over any expectations that the central bank would alter its neutral stance anytime soon.
The RBA kept rates on hold for 22nd consecutive month offering nothing new as far as future plans. It made a mildly positive remark about the trough in wage growth, but wages remain well below the RBA normal growth path of 3.5% and in the meantime the central bank remains concerned about the growing trade tensions between US and China, worried that Australia may bear the fallout of any trade war.
Today the market will get a look at the Aussie GDP data which is expected to rise by 0.9% versus 0.4% the month prior. A good print could put the pair back on track towards the .7650 level but the pair remains capped at .7700 for now. Still, the positive data this week should keep the pair supported and it looks like it made a clear longterm bottom at the .7500 level