The office of the U.S. Trade Representative has confirmed that tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time tonight.
This is on top of tariffs on steel, aluminum, washing machines, and solar panels that President Donald Trump has already imposed. Another $16 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods will go into effect later–possibly next week.
The Chinese have promised retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods including pork and soybeans will go into effect immediately after the U.S. acts.
Most worrisome to financial markets is that President Trump has announced tariffs on additional Chinese goods if China responds as is promised. The next U.S. package of tariffs would include $200 billion in Chinese goods.
If the tariff war stops at the $50 billion level, economists estimate it will take 0.2 percentage points out of China’s GDP growth rate in 2019, according to Bloomberg Economics. (China’s GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in 2017.) An escalation to the next stage would lp 0.5 percentage points off China’s GDP growth in 2019.