A handful of metro areas that spent the past year competing for Amazon’s second headquarters – including the Washington region, one of the winners – are expected to see their home-value growth outpace the nation in the coming year, according to the 2018 Q4 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey.
The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, asked more than 100 real estate economists and investment experts for their predictions about the U.S. housing market, including which three markets they believe are most likely to outperform the U.S., and which three are most likely to underperform in 2019.
Denver, Washington, Atlanta and Dallas ranked as the four markets most likely to outperform the national average rate of home-value appreciation. All four were on Amazon’s final list of 20 candidates before it selected the New York City and Northern Virginia to split the planned headquarters.
Boston and Nashville, two other HQ2 finalist metros, also made the respondents’ top-10 list. Denver, Boston and the Washington region so far this year have lagged behind the national average rate.
Las Vegas and Phoenix were the two non-HQ2 finalist markets deemed most likely to outperform the nation, followed by San Jose, where home values already have grown nearly 18 percent this year alone. Nationwide, home values have increased 7.7 percent through the first ten months of 2018.
But courting Amazon and its expected 50,000 jobs didn’t guarantee a rosy 2019 outlook. Chicago, also on the HQ2 short list, was considered the metro most likely to underperform against the national market.
Chicago has struggled relative to most other markets to recover from the housing bust over the past decade, with home values still more than 13 percent below their pre-recession peaks.
Baltimore was just ahead of Chicago on the list of expected underperformers.
The average expected home price appreciation rate for next year is 3.8 percent, down from 4.2 percent in the previous quarter.
Also, the panel’s expected annual growth rate over the next five years ticked down to 3.4 percent.
This article provided by NewsEdge.