A Boost On Deck For Medtronic

China’s Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen says the U.S. is putting “a knife to China’s neck” with the $200B in tariffs on Chinese goods that kicked in yesterday. During a press conference, Wang questioned how negotiations could proceed when “it’s not an equal negotiation” with the backdrop of “threats and pressure.” Wang accuses unnamed individuals of making groundless criticisms against China regarding trade and security issues. Wang: “If this continues, it will destroy in an instant the gains of the last four decades of China-U.S. relations.”

*Source:  Seeking Alpha

Let’s consider Medtronic PLC (Ticker: MDT):

The VantagePoint platform recently indicated continuing upside momentum.

Using the predictive indicators embedded within the VantagePoint platform and its predictive AI technology, we will point out three significant things. We have a bullish crossover indicated by the blue predictive indicator line crossing above the black simple moving average on September 20th.  We can combine that with the VantagePoint propriety neural index indicator moving from the RED to the GREEN on September 20th as well.  This indicator measures strength and weakness for a 48-hour period, in this case, bullishness.  The move to the GREEN position further makes the case for a potential bullish scenario. We also have the predicted high and low above yesterday’s actual high and low indicating further strength.  I want to play the VP continued bullish indication.

Strategy Discussion

If you are strictly a stock trader, simply buying MDT in the $99.00 area is a prudent move.  You are anticipating a move to the upside.  It is always a good idea to enter a sell-stop order to mitigate potential losses.  Placing that sell-stop in the $97.50 area will achieve that goal.

For active traders with a shorter investment time horizon, you can consider a setup utilizing options. Given the market conditions outlined above, taking an active, premium debit approach may be the best path to success.

Because of the reasons given above, the purchase of a debit call spread may be one way to approach this situation.  You will first want to calculate your target strike.  In order to do this, you will need three pieces of data:  current price, expiration date and the implied volatility associated with that expiration date.  For MDT, that yields a targeted strike of ~$102.00.  You may want to consider the MDT October 19th regular monthly expiration 100/102 call spread, buying it for $0.50.  The most you can lose is the premium paid and the most you can gain is the width of the wider spread less any premium paid.  Max risk = $0.50 and max reward = $1.50

This means that you are getting odds of 3.00:1.

Given the trading and market environment outlined above, a trader must evaluate whether this reward/risk ratio is appropriate for his/her risk tolerance.