Wells Fargo, $WFC, reported earnings April 13th and saw it’s stock trade down through support. The company then received a $1 billion fine for their mortgage business last week. Yikes, the trouble seems to never end at this bank. But the stock price ended last week with a 2 day rally and back over that support. In fact, there are some indications that the worst may be over.
The Bollinger Bands® have squeezed in as it rose the last 2 days. The RSI made a higher high as it approaches the bullish one. The MACD has crossed up and is rising. All support a move to the upside. There is resistance at 53.35 and a move over that could trigger a big run. There is resistance above that at 54.25 and 54.75 then 56.35 and 58.50 then 60 and a gap to fill above that to 64. Support lower comes at 51.10 and 50.30 then 49.60 and 46.80 before 44.65. Short interest is low under 1%.
The May options chain shows the biggest open interest at the 55 strike on the call side, 3x that at the 50 strike on the put side. June options show a cluster from 47.50 to 57.50 on the put side with the call side seeing 2 spikes in open interest around 55 and 65. The July options, after the next earnings report have biggest open interest in the call side at 52.50, 65 and 70.
Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 53.50 with a stop at 51.
Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 53.50 and add a July 52.50/47.50 Put Spread ($1.58) for protection.
Trade Idea 3: Buy a July 47.5/55 bullish Risk Reversal (54 cents).
Trade Idea 4: Buy a May/July 55 Call Calendar (90 cents).
Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate in a broad range while Crude Oil continues to be the strongest market rising higher. The US Dollar Index churns along sideways while US Treasuries are now in a downtrend. The Shanghai Composite has also turned downward while Emerging Markets continue to mark time at the highs.
Volatility has been stuck in a more normal range and does not look to be changing that anytime soon. This has left the equity index ETF’s SPY< IWM and QQQ to blaze their own path. Their charts continue to frustrate in the short term, falling back from lower highs, but longer term continue to consolidate in broad ranges at the top. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.